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The National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

The Institute of Electrodynamics

About Institute



I. Blinov*, E. Parus** ,V. Miroshnyk***
Institute of Electrodynamics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, pr. Peremohy, 56, Kyiv, 03057, Ukraine,
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*** ORCID ID :

The statistical analysis of the forecast error of the "day ahead" electricity supply volumes by the producers, which are included in the balancing group of the State Enterprise "Guaranteed Buyer”, was carried out. The distribution of forecast errors by hours of the day is determined. A simplified method for calculating the price and the total cost of the forecast error is described considering the various formulas for the cost of imbalances calculating. The potential for improving the accuracy of the forecast for increasing the permissible installed capacity of power plants with renewable energy sources with the technical means available in the power system to compensate for the power fluctuations is shown. Approbation of the methodology and calculation of quantitative indicators was carried out on real data of the total supply of renewable energy sources by producers, which were published by SE Energorynok. The calculations are of an estimate nature. Since the calculations are based on a “naive” assumption about the distribution of forecast errors, which depend on the structure of RES producers by types of primary energy carriers and specific meteorological conditions. References 11, figures 5, tables 2.
Key words: renewable sources, electricity market, short-term forecasting, forecast interval, deep learning neural networks, cost estimation.

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2. On approval of regulations governing the activities of a guaranteed buyer and purchase of electricity at a green tariff. Resolution of National energy and regulatory commission, Ukraine of April 26 . 2019. No 641 (with changes of the resolution No 2802 ). (Ukr)
3. Hong T. Crystal Ball Lessons in Predictive Analytics. EnergyBiz. 2015. Vol.12. Issue 2. Pp.35-37.
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6. Lazard’s Levelized Cost Of Energy Analysis . Version 14.0. URL:
7. Ivanov H.A., Blinov I.V., Parus E.V. Simulation Model of New Electricity Market in Ukraine. 2019. IEEE 6th International Conference on Energy Smart Systems (ESS). Pp. 339-342. (Eng)
8. Kyrylenko O.V., Blinov I.V., Parus E.V. Determination of the auction results for purchase and selling of electricity. Problems of general energy. 2010. No 3. Pp. 5–12. (Ukr)
9. About the statement of Rules of the market. Resolution of National energy and regulatory commission, Ukraine. March 14 2018. No 307.
10. Blinov I. Miroshnyk V., Shymaniuk P. Short-term interval forecast of total electricity generation by renewable energy sources producers. Pratsi Instytutu Electrodynamiky NAN Ukrainy. 2019. No 54. Pp. 512. (Ukr) DOI:
11. Croonenbroeck C., Stadtmann G. Renewable generation forecast studies–Review and good practice guidance. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 2019. Vol. 108. Pp. 312–322.  DOI:

Received 16.10.2020